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U toku mjeseca aprila i maja 2008. godine Sarajevska
berza – burza i Samoregulirajuća organizacija profesionalnih posrednika (SRO)
održali su seriju predavanja širom Federacije Bosne i Hercegovine gdje su upoznali
investitore o osnovama tržišta kapitala. Ovo su prezentacije sa tih predavanja.
Osnove
tržišta kapitala i investiranja.pdf
Investicioni
fondovi u BiH - prednost ulaganja.pdf
Odluka
o investiranju.pdf
Na ovoj stranici možete pronaći tekstove, tzv.
working papers koji se bave tematikom berze i tržišta kapitala. Working paper je naučni rad koji još zvanično
nije publikovan i obično sadrži „najsvježije“ informacije iz jedne oblasti. Vrijednost ovih radova pri izradi diplomskih,
seminarskih i svih ostalih radova je, posebno u našim uslovima slabe dostupnosti
naučne literature, neprocjenjiva. Radovi koje možete ovdje besplatno skinuti su
intelektualno vlasništvo njihovih autora, i Sarajevska berza ne polaže nikakva
prava na njih. Isto tako, stavovi izneseni u ovim radovima ne predstavljaju
zvanični stav Berze po bilo kojem od navedenih tema.Working papers su uglavnom u pdf-formatu, a radi
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1) „An Empirical Analysis
of the Trading Structure at the Stockholm Stock Exchange“
Jonas
Niemeyer,Stockholm School of Economics
Abstract: This paper describes and analyzes
the trading structure at the Stockholm Stock Exchange. In the empirical part,
we report stylized facts based on intraday transaction and order book data,
focusing on the intraday behavior of returns, trading activity, order placement
and bid/ask spread, on the importance of the tick size and finally on some characteristics
of the limit order book. Our main empirical conclusions are that a) the intraday
U-shape in trading activity found in earlier U.S. studies on the whole also
pertains to the Stockholm Stock Exchange, b) the limit order placement also
follows an intraday U-shape, c) there is no distinct intraday pattern in returns,
d) the volatility and bid/ask spread seems to be higher at the beginning of
the trading day, e) the tick size is economically important, and f) the price
impact of an order is a non-linear function of its quantity, implying price
inelastic demand and supply.
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2) „The Anatomy of
a Call Market: Evidence from Germany“
Carl-Heinrich Kehr / Jan
P. Krahnen / Erik Theissen
November 2000
Abstract: This paper provides a detailed
analysis of the call auction procedure on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. We develop
a direct measure of execution costs in a call auction that is comparable to
the bid-ask spread in a continuous market. We find that transaction costs for
small transactions in the call market are lower than the quoted spread in the
continuous market, whereas transaction costs for large transactions in the call
market are higher than the spread in the continuous market. An analysis of specialist
(Makler) participation shows that Maklers provide a valuable service to the
market. On average, their compensation is restricted to commission income rather
than trading profits.
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3) „Automation, Trading
Costs, and the Structure of the Trading Services Industry“
Ian
Domowitz and Benn Steil
Draft for publication in Brookings-Wharton Papers
on Financial Services 1999
Abstract: We examine the impact of advances
in automated trade execution on the cost of trading and the structure of the
trading services industry. The effects have been fundamental: the cost of providing
exchange trading services has declined signficantly, the means by which they
can be delivered to investors has changed radically, and the natural industrial
structure of the trading services industry has been transformed in consequence.
All classes of market participants – exchanges, broker-dealers, investors, and
regulators – are affected by these developments.
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4) „Building a Better
Stock Market: New Solutions to Old Problems“
Robert A. Schwartz
Abstract: Far-reaching change has been
occurring at an astonishing pace in the U.S. equity markets. This paper reviews
the scene and focuses on the competitive responses of Nasdaq and the New York
Stock Exchange. In the process, we give particular attention to regulation’s
impact on market structure; the price discovery function of a marketplace; the
recent growth of electronic communications networks (ECNs); and to various issues
relating to the electronic call auction, an important new facility for handling
orders and making trades....
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5) „Calling the Open:
Price Discovery Evidence from Nasdaq“
James J. Angel & Simon
Z. Wu
March 1, 2001
Abstract: The opening of a market provides
a unique window on the price formation process. In a continuous market, recent
transaction prices are useful signals of the correct price. Such signals are
lacking prior to a market open, leading to fundamental changes in the order
placement strategies of investors. Currently, Nasdaq does not have a single
official opening price; market orders sent to different market centers before
the open may be executed at different prices. This lack of a single opening
price has led to proposals to add a formal opening call to the Nasdaq market.
We compare the existing Nasdaq opening with the outcome of a call market simulated
with actual Nasdaq orders. Our findings indicate that replacing the current
decentralized opening mechanism with an unintermediated call could result in
significantly lower market quality, with more order imbalances, wider bid-ask
spreads, and lower quality price discovery. This is the opposite of the result
we initially expected. We also investigate a call for the opening of IPOs and
find similar results, although the accuracy of the price discovered was about
the same as the existing mechanism.......
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6) „Capital Markets
and the instability of Open Economies“
Phillipe Aghion & Phillipe
Baghetta
Abstract: This paper introduces a framework
for analyzing the role of financial factors as a source of instabilityin small
open economies. Our basic mdel is a dynamic open economy model with one tradeable
and one non-tradeable good with the non-tradeable beeing an input to the production
of the tradeable. We also assume that firms face credit constraints, with the
constraint being tighter at a lower level of financial development.
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7) „Characteristics
of the Order Flow through an Electronic Open Limit Order Book“
Philip Brown; Nathanial Thomson; David Walsh
Abstract: We estimate and examine certain
characteristics of the order flow through an electronic open limit order book,
using order (not trade) data. The proportion of informed orders is less than
10%, lower than previous estimates. Informed traders choose smaller orders than
uninformed traders, but do not materially differ in their choice of limit or
market orders. The proportion of informed investors is similar between good
and bad news days. Finally, there are U-shaped intraday patterns in order arrival,
and the information content of the order flow appears to follow this pattern
across the day.
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8) „Commonality in
liquidity“
Tarun Chordia; Richard Roll; Avanidhar Subrahmanyam
Abstract: Traditionally and understandably,
the microscope of market microstructure has focused on attributes of single
assets. Little theoretical attention and virtually no empirical work has been
devoted to common determinants of liquidity nor to their empirical manifestation,
correlated movements in liquidity. But a wider-angle lens exposes an imposing
image of commonality. Quoted spreads, quoted depth, and efective spreads co-move
with market- and industry-wide liquidity. After controlling for wellknown individual
liquidity determinants, such as volatility, volume, and price, common infuences
remain signi"cant and material. Recognizing the existence of commonality is
a key to uncovering some suggestive evidence that inventory risks and asymmetric
information both affect intertemporal changes in liquidity.
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9) „Competition for
Listings“
Thierry Foucault; Christine A. Parlour
October,
2001
Abstract: We develop a model in which
stock exchanges compete for IPO listings. They choose the listing fees paid
by entrepreneurs wishing to go public and control the trading costs incurred
by investors. All entrepreneurs prefer lower costs, however entrepreneurs differ
in how they value a decrease in trading costs. Hence, in equilibrium, competing
exchanges can obtain positive expected profits by choosing different trading
costs and different listing fees. As a result, firms that list on different
exchanges have different characteristics. The model has testable implications
for the cross—sectional characteristics of IPOs on different quality exchanges
and the relationship between the level of trading costs and listing fees.
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10) „Competition, Liquidity
and Volatility - A Comparative Study of Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock
Exchange“
Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti
Abstract: India currently has two major
stock exchanges: The Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange.
There are important differences in ownership structure, geographic reach, internal
control systems and institutionalised risk management facilities between the
Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange. The purpose of this study
is to examine if these significant structural differences between these stock
exchanges contribute to variations in observed measures of quality of markets.
We use a paired comparison approach and document significant differences in
liquidity and price volatility between the two markets.
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11) „Continuous Trading
or Call Auctions: Revealed Preferences of Investors at the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange“
Avner Kalay, Li Wei and Avi Wohl
First Version: November 1998
This
version: April 2001
Abstract: We use the move of Israeli
stocks from call auction trading to continuous trading to show that investors
have a preference for stocks that trade continuously. When large stocks move
from call auction to continuous trading, the small stocks that still trade by
call auction experience a significant loss in volume relative to the overall
market volume. As small stocks move to continuous trading, they experience an
increase in volume and positive abnormal returns because of the associated increase
in liquidity. Overall, though, a move to continuous trading increases the volume
of large stocks relative to small stocks.
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12) „Cross-Listing
and the Geography of Firms’ Ownership“
Thierry Foucault & Thomas
Gehrig
April, 2002
Abstract: With the integration of capital
markets a trend towards multiple listings of securities in geographically separate
markets can be witnessed worldwide (Pagano, Roell, Zechner, 2000). In particular,
an increasing number of non-US companies seem to acquire a New York listing.
Likewise recently privatized companies in the so-called transition countries
typically seek a London or another European listing (Bortolotti, Fantini, Scarpa,
2000). Moreover, stock exchanges compete aggressively for domestic and foreign
listings (Gehrig, Stahl, Vives, 1996). This paper analyzes issuers’ incentives
to list their securities on different exchanges and draws some implications
for global market integration as well as the competition between stock exchanges....
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13) „Does an Electronic
Stock Exchange Need an Upstairs Market?“
Hendrik Bessembinder
& Kumar Venkataraman
Abstract: We examine block trades on
the Paris Bourse to test several theoretical predictions regarding upstairs
trading, and exploit cross-sectional variation in “crossing rules” on the Paris
Bourse to provide evidence on their relevance. Paris provides an excellent setting
to test the implications of upstairs intermediation models, because its electronic
limit order market closely resembles the downstairs markets envisioned by theorists.
We present direct evidence in support of Grossman’s (1992) prediction that upstairs
brokers lower execution costs by tapping into pools of unexpressed liquidity,
as actual execution costs upstairs are less than one third as large as would
be anticipated if block trades were executed against displayed liquidity in
the downstairs market. Consistent with prior analyses, the Paris data also supports
the Seppi (1990) hypothesis that upstairs brokers certify trades as uninformed.
We find that participants in stocks with less restrictive crossing rules agree
to outside-the-quote executions for more difficult trades and at times when
downstairs liquidity is lacking. These likely represent trades that could not
have been otherwise completed, suggesting that market quality can be enhanced
by allowing participants more flexibility to execute blocks at prices outside
the quotes, a consideration particularly relevant to U.S. markets in the wake
of decimalization.
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14) „Does Privatization
Enhance or Deter Small Enterprise Formation?“
Daniel Berkowitz
& Jonathan Holland
June 2001
Abstract: Small enterprises are a growth
engine in post-socialist economies. We argue that privatization can either enhance
or deter small enterprise formation via its impact on the local business environment.
We then show that in Russia small-scale privatization deterred small enterprise
formation, while large-scale privatization enhanced it.
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15) „Equity Trading
Systems in Europe - A survey of recent changes“
Marianne Demarchi
and Thierry Foucault
This draft: February 1998
Abstract: This paper provides a survey
of recent changes in the market microstructure of the 5 largest European Stock
Exchanges. We first provide a brief statistical overview of European equity
markets. Then we discuss how the introduction of the Investment Services Directive
and the development of institutional trading have prompted European Stock Exchanges
to modify their trading systems since 1994. We show that these exchanges have
converged to a similar market organization. In this organization, trading takes
place in an order-driven market but trading rules can vary according to the
type of securities. We also describe the remaining differences between the trading
systems, in particular with respect to the consolidation of the order flow and
transparency.
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16) „Financial crisis
prevention: A psychological approach from behavioural finance“
Masami Hayashi
Abstract: Taking the example of the East
Asian crisis, this paper attempts to explain, from a psychological perspective,
why similar financial crises have happened one after another in emerging markets
recently. It analyses Japanese bankers’ behaviour in the face of the ‘East Asian
Miracle’ and the following financial crisis, finds that their ‘quasi-rational’
behaviour inevitably led the affected countries to the crisis, and shows that
this can be explained well through a psychological approach from behavioural
finance. Policy recommendations deducted from the study include regulations
and cooperation at the international level, and the application of behavioural
finance to the establishment of financial crisis prevention measures.
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17) „Financial development
and stock market performance“
Harris Dellas & Martin K. Hess
Abstract: The level of financial development
is an important determinant of the performance of capital markets. We examine
stock returns in a cross section of emerging and mature markets (49 countries)
over 1980-99. Returns in financially underdeveloped countries have been somewhat
lower, but significantly more volatile and less closely linked to – and influenced
by – world stock returns. This implies that the stock markets of financially
underdeveloped countries may have contributed to higher global risk diversification
but not to higher returns. Two features seem responsible for these patterns
– Higher transaction costs and greater legal (political) uncertainty.
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18) „Floor versus Screen
Trading: Evidence from the German Stock Market“
Erik Theissen
December 1999
Abstract: The last decade has witnessed
a dramatic increase in both the number and the market share of screen-based
trading systems. Electronic trading systems do offer lower operating costs and
the possibility of remote access to the market. On the other hand, arguments
based on the anonymity of electronic trading systems suggest that adverse selection
may be a more severe problem and that, therefore, bid-ask spreads may be higher.
The present paper addresses the issue of transaction costs in floor and computerized
trading systems empirically. In Germany, floor and screen trading for the same
stocks exist in parallel. Both markets are liquid and operate simultaneously
for several hours each day.
An analysis of the bid-ask spreads reveals
that the electronic trading system is relatively less attractive for less liquid
stocks. The market shares of the competing systems reveal a similar pattern.
The market share of the electronic trading system is negatively related to the
total trading volume of the stock, is positively related to the difference between
spreads on the floor and in the screen trading system and is at least partially
negatively related to return volatility. We further document that spreads in
the electronic trading system respond more heavily to changes in return volatility
and that the adverse selection component of the spread is larger. We discuss
implications our results have for the design of electronic trading systems.
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19) „FROM STATE TO
MARKET: A SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON PRIVATIZATION“
William
L. Megginson and Jeffry M. Netter
Abstract: The political and economic
policy of privatization, broadly defined as the deliberate sale by a government
of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or assets to private economic agents, is now
in use worldwide. Since its introduction by Britain’s Thatcher government in
the early 1980s to a thenskeptical public (that included many economists), privatization
now appears to be accepted as a legitimate – often a core — tool of statecraft
by governments of more than 100 countries. Privatization is one of the most
important elements of the continuing global phenomenon of the increasing use
of markets to allocate resources.
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20) „How large is liquidity
risk in an automated auction market?
Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig
September 21, 2002
Abstract: We introduce a new empirical
methodology that takes account of liquidity risk in a Value-at-Risk framework,
and quantify liquidity risk premiums for portfolios and individual stocks traded
on the automated auction market Xetra which oper- ates at various European exchanges.
When constructing liquidity risk measures we allow for the potential price impact
incurred by the liquidation of a portfolio. We study the sensitivity of liquidity
risk towards portfolio size and VaR time horizon, and interpret its diurnal
variation in the light of market microstructure theory.
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21) „The Informational
Content of an Open Limit Order Book“
Charles Cao & Oliver Hansch
& Xiaoxin Wang
February 18, 2004
Abstract: We assess the informational
content of an open limit order book from three directions: (1) Does the limit
order book allow better inferences about a security's value than simply the
best bid and o er prices from the first step of the book? If it does, how much
additional information can be gleaned from the book? (2) Are imbalances between
the demand and supply schedules informative about future price movements? and
(3) Does the shape of the limit order book impact traders' order submission
strategies? Our empirical evidence suggests that the order book beyond the first
step is informative{its information share is about 30%. The imbalance between
demand and supply from step 2 to 10 provides additional power in explaining
future short-term returns. Finally, traders do use the available information
on the state of the book, not only from the first step, but also from other
steps, when developing their order submission strategies.
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22) „Information Asymmetry,
Informed Trading, and Order Imbalance around Daily Limit-
Hits: Evidence
from Transactions Data and the Limit Order Book of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange“
S. Ghon Rhee, Soon Huat Chan and Kenneth A. Kim
Abstract: This study investigates an
emerging stock market that employs a wide price limit system. We examine the
impacts of price limits on (i) information asymmetry, (ii) arrival rates of
informed traders, and (iii) order imbalance. Using both trade-totrade transaction
data and the limit order book, we compile empirical evidence that price limits
do not improve information asymmetry, delays the arrival rate of informed traders,
and exacerbates order imbalance. These results suggest that price limit mechanisms
may not improve market efficiency, but impose serious costs even if the limit
band is wide.
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23) „Institutional
Design and Liquidity on Stock Exchanges“
Pankaj Jain
Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact
of various institutional features of stock exchanges on their performance in
a unified framework. We assemble the institutional design features like organizational
structure, trading mechanism, trade-execution system, transparency, degree of
market fragmentation, age, and ownership for 51 major exchanges around the world.
For these exchanges, representing over 90% of world’s market capitalization,
their institutional features are linked with various performance measures namely
– quoted bidask spreads, effective spreads, realized spreads, volatility, and
trading turnover. Simultaneous-system-of-equations model is used to account
for inter-linkages between the different measures of performance. We find that
hybrid systems have lower spreads and volatility than pure limit order systems,
which in turn are have lower spreads and volatility than pure dealership systems.
Stock exchanges with bid-ask spreads are those that have narrower tick sizes,
competitive market makers, electronic limit order book, automatic execution
of trades, centralized trading, and enforcement of insider trading laws. The
results do not provide any support to the theories that predict better liquidity
for monopolistic specialist system, or electronic open limit order book with
no dealers. Spreads are directly related to return volatility but inversely
related to market capitalization on a global basis. The analysis has important
policy implications for security lawmakers implementing fairness and transparency,
companies seeking global listings, investors forming trading strategies, and
stock exchanges altering their institutional design to increase competitiveness.
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24) „The Internationalization
of Financial Services: Issues and Lessons for Developing Countries“
World Bank
Abstract: This book presents fourteen
contributions analyzing different aspects of the internationalization of financial
services. Some of the papers concentrate on theoretical aspects, some investigate
cross-country patterns while others examine specific country experiences with
internationalization. All of them focus on whether the benefits of internationalization
of financial services exceed potential costs. Together, they shed light on the
variety and importance of the effects of internationalization on domestic financial
systems.
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25) „Intraday Predictability
of Market Microstructure Statistics and Technical Trading Rules"
Lawrence Kryzanowski
Abstract: The short-run predictability
of price changes and quote revisions, using market microstructure statistics
and three popular technical trading rules, is examined using intraday data.
The average level and quality of traders' information is captured by price and
other microstructure variables (particularly volume and number of trades), respectively.
Historical trade information is useful in predicting current stock price movements
and quote revisions, and technical trading signals based on past price patterns
have predictive ability only for quote revisions. Very little incremental predictive
power from adding technical trading rule signals (such as moving average crossings,
trading range breaks and relative strength) to the prediction equation containing
the market microstructure effects. Simulated program trading based on technical
trading rules is not profitable in the short-term.
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26) „Investment analysis
and price formation in securities markets“
Michael J. Brennan
& Avanidhar Subrahmanyam
Abstract: This paper investigates the
relation between the number of analysts following a security and the estimated
adverse selection cost of transacting in the security, controlling for the effects
of previosly identified determinants of liquidity. Using intraday data for the
year 1988, we find tha greater analyst following tends to reduce adverse selection
costs based on the Kyle (1985) notion of market depth. This result is consistent
with the analysis of Admati and Pfleiderer (1988). Estimates fo structural parameters
of a version of the Admati and Pfleiderer model of endogenuous information acquisition
provide qualified support for the model.
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27) „Key microstructure
and policy issues for emerging stock markets – what have we learned?“
Christopher Green
Abstract: This paper surveys the main
theoretical and empirical literature on emerging stock markets, in order to
identify the key microstructure elements and policy issues that relate to the
development of stock markets in developing countries. Some findings from research
on developed stock markets are used to provide a contrast, where necessary.
After exploring issues relating to market efficiency, the paper focuses on the
main microstructure issues such as trading systems and their performance, costs
of trading, volatility and liquidity. Specific policy issues are explored by
examining the relationship between stock markets and the macroeconomic policy
framework. The paper concludes by putting forward some promising research ideas.
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28) „Limit Order Book
as a Market for Liquidity“
Thierry Foucault & Ohad Kadan
Abstract: We develop a dynamic mod elofanord
er-d rivenmarket populated b y d isc retionary liquid ity traders. T hese trad
ersmust trad e, yet c anchoose the type oford er and are fully strategic intheir
d ec ision.Trad ersd i®er b y their impatienc e: lesspatient trad ersd emand
liquid ity,more patient trad ersprovid e it.T hree equilib rium types are ob
tained - the type isd etermined b y three parameters: the d egree ofimpatienc
e ofthe patient trad ers,which we interpret asthe c ost ofexec utiond elay inprovid
ing liquid ity; their proportioninthe population, which d eterminesthe d egree
ofc ompetitionamong the liquidity provid ers; and the tick size, which isthe
cost ofthe minimalpric e improvement.Despite itssimplic ity,the mod elgeneratesa
rich set of empiric alpred ic tionsonthe relationb etw eenmarket parameters,time
to execution, and spread s.We argue that the ec onomic intuitionofthismod elisrob
ust,thusits main results will remain in more general models.
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29) „Liquidity and
Information-Based Trading on the Order Driven Capital Market: The Case of the
Prague Stock Exchange“
Libor Nemeček
Abstract: This paper investigates the
relation between liquidity and information-based trading in the context of an
order-driven auction. A model similar in spirit to that of Easley et al. (1996)
is used to determine how often new information occurs and how it influences
the composition of orders submitted to the market. The risk of informationbased
trading is estimated for a sample of Prague Stock Exchange listed stocks. The
empirical results agree with previous findings that the risk of information-based
trading is lower for more active stocks. Surprisingly, information based trading
is apparently less common on the recently created Prague Stock Exchange than
on more wellestablished markets.
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30) „Liquidity Risk
and expected stock returns“
Lubos Pastor et al
Abstract: This study investigates whether
market wide liquidity is a state variable important for asset pricing. We find
that expected stock returns are related cross-sectionally to the sensitivities
of returns to fluctuations in agregate liquidity. Our monthly liquidity measure,
an average of individual stock measures estimated with daily data, relies on
the principle that order flow induces greater return reversals when liquidity
is lower. Over a 34 year period, the average return on stocks with high sensitivities
to liquidity exceeds that for stocks with low sensitivities by 7,5% annually,
adjuested for exposures to the market return as well as size, value and momentum
factors.
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31) „Liquidity supply
and demand in limit order markets“
Burton Hollifield, Robert
A Miller, Patrik Sandas and Joshua Slive
Abstract: We model a trader’s decision
to supply liquidity by submitting limit orders or demand liquidity by submitting
market orders in a limit order market. The best quotes and the execution probabilities
and picking-off risks of limit orders determine the price of immediacy. The
price of immediacy and the trader’s willingness to pay for immediacy determine
the trader’s optimal order submission, with the trader’s willingness to pay
for immediacy depending on the trader’s valuation for the stock. We estimate
the execution probabilities and the picking off risks using a sample from the
Vancouver Stock Exchange to compute the price of immediacy. The price of immediacy
changes with market conditions – a trader’s optimal order submission changes
with market conditions. We combine the price of immediacy with the actual order
submissions to estimate the unobserved arrival rates of traders and the distribution
of the traders’ valuations. High-realized stock volatility increases the arrival
rate of traders and increases the number of value traders arriving – liquidity
supply is more competitive after periods of high volatility. An increase in
the spread decreases the arrival rate of traders and decreases the number of
value traders arriving – liquidity supply is less competitive when the spread
widens.
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32) „Liquidity, trading
size, and the coexistence of dealership and auction markets“
Fabio C. BaglianoyAndrea Brandolini z Alberto Dalmazzox
Abstract: This paper analyses the coexistence
of two markets for the same shares, a quote-driven market and an order-driven
market, as observed for example for the trading of continental shares on the
London SEAQ International. The focus is on the trade-o¤ between the uncertain
execution price faced by investors on an auction market and the implicit transaction
cost represented by the spread in a dealer market. We obtain that those investors
who desire to make large trades will prefer to trade with the dealer, while
trades of smaller size will be carried out on the auction market. Moreover,
we explicitly investigate the interrelations between the two markets showing
that the pricing policy followed by a dealer depends on the conditions prevailing
on the auction market.
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33) „Market Liquidity
and Trading Activity“
TARUN CHORDIA, RICHARD ROLL, and AVANIDHAR
SUBRAHMANYAM*
Abstract: Previous studies of liquidity
span short time periods and focus on the individual security. In contrast, we
study aggregate market spreads, depths, and trading activity for U.S. equities
over an extended time sample. Daily changes in market averages of liquidity
and trading activity are highly volatile and negatively serially dependent.
Liquidity plummets significantly in down markets. Recent market volatility induces
a decrease in trading activity and spreads. There are strong dayof- the-week
effects; Fridays accompany a significant decrease in trading activity and liquidity,
while Tuesdays display the opposite pattern. Long- and short-term interest rates
influence liquidity. Depth and trading activity increase just prior to major
macroeconomic announcements.
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34) „Market microstructure:
A survey“
Ananth Madhavan
Abstract: Market microstructure studies
the process by which investors' latent demands are ultimately translated into
prices and volumes. This paper reviews the theoretical, empirical and experimental
literature on market microstructure relating to: (1) price formation, including
the dynamic process by which prices come to impound information, (2) market
structure and design, including the relation between price formation and trading
protocols, (3) Transparency, the ability of market participants to observe information
about the trading process, and (4) Applications to other areas of xnance including
asset pricing, international finance, and corporate finance.
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35) „Market Structure,
Intermediation and Liquidity“
Thorsten Freihube / Jan P. Krahnen
/ Erik Theissen
April 2001
Abstract: We present a summary assessment
of experimental and empirical results focussing on a single question: How does
the design of a securities market affect its performance, notably its transaction
costs. A new methodology for measuring transaction costs is developed that allows
a direct comparison between batched auctions (call markets) and continuous auctions.
Empirical results are based on data from the Frankfurt stock exchange. They
identify an important role played by marketmakers (specialists) relating to
transaction costs, and price variability. Experimental results yield additional
results concerning the importance of competitive pressure for transaction costs
on marketmaker markets.
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36) „Noise in the
Price Discovery Process: A Comparison of Periodic and Continuous Auctions“
Mark Coppejans
Abstract: Price volatility and market
efficiency is examined for an automated periodic auction mechanism and a continuous
automated auction, using data on five futures contracts which obviate ambiguities
due to periods of non-trading. Theoretical results suggest equality of price
volatility across periodic and continuous mechanisms, depending on order arrival
rates. The empirical analysis consists of direct comparisons via variance ratios
and variance ratio tests conditional on a model of price and value adjustment.
The periodic auction yields the same volatility as the continuous market for
a stock index contract, while the periodic market is associated with lower volatility
for currency futures, consistent with order flow considerations. Tests fail
to reject market efficiency for the index contract and three out of four currency
futures, regardless of trading mechanism.
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37) „Order Flow Dynamics:
Evidence from the Helsinki Stock Exchange“
Kaj Hedvall
Abstract: This paper investigates the
dynamics of the order flow in a limit order book using a unique data set from
the Helsinki Stock Exchange that encompasses the entire order book structure,
including the dealer identities. The study focuses on the informational content
of the order flow and on a set of potential explanations of the autocorrelation
of order submission. We find that order flow is autocorrelated and that non-informational
and informational order flow is distinguished by the traders. We find that strategic
order splitting is more common than imitation in this transparent market structure.
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38) „Order Imbalances
and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange"
Yi-Tsung Lee; Yu-Jane Liu; Richard Roll; Avanidhar Subrahmanyam
Abstract: Data from the Taiwan Stock
Exchange identify the originator of each submitted order, and there are no designated
dealers or specialists. We study marketable order imbalances, i.e., the net
order flow resulting from trades that demand immediacy. We distinguish imbalances
by trader type (individuals, domestic institutions, foreign institutions) and
by the usual size of each trader’s order. Day-to-day persistence in order imbalance
is strongest for small foreign institutions and weakest for large individual
traders. Such persistence emanates both from splitting orders over time and
from herding, and there is little evidence that aggregate price pressures from
such persistence last beyond a trading day, indicating that de facto market
making is quite effective. We attempt to discern which types of traders are
de facto liquidity-providers, which are likely to be informed, and which trade
for liquidity reasons. The evidence indicates that all trader classes are successful
market makers, large domestic institutions conduct the most informed trades,
and large individuals are noise or liquidity traders.
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39) „Price Discovery
in Initial Public Offerings and the Role of the Lead Underwriter"
REENA AGGARWAL and PAT CONROY
Abstract: We examine the price discovery
process of initial public offerings ~IPOs! using a unique dataset. The first
quote entered by the lead underwriter in the five-minute preopening window explains
a large proportion of initial returns even for hot IPOs. Significant learning
and price discovery continues to take place during these five minutes with hundreds
of quotes being entered. The lead underwriter observes the quoting behavior
of other market makers, particularly the wholesalers, and accordingly revises
his own quotes. There is a strong positive relationship between initial returns
and the time of day when trading starts in an IPO.
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40) „Prices, Liquidity,
and the Information Content of Trades"
Abstract: We investigate the effect of
asymmetric information on prices and liquidity by analyzing trades, quotes,
spreads and depths. Information content should increase with trade size and
the degree of information asymmetry of the trading period. Results show that
price and liquidity effects are significantly associated with information content
as measured by both trade size and the timing of the trade relative to information
events. Results are stronger for purchases than sales. Quoted prices are better
measures of information effects than transaction prices, because they control
for bid-ask bounce. Finally, trades that are known a priori not to contain information
have no impact on prices and liquidity, even when they are very large in size.
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41) „Registered trader
participation during the Toronto Stock Exchange’s pre-opening session“
Ryan Daviesy, November 13, 2000
Abstract: This paper documents order
submission strategies during the Toronto Stock Exchange’s pre-opening session.
I find that the registered trader (RT) actively participates in the market opening
despite not being able to set the opening price directly and not having an apparent
informational advantage. I find that RT opening trades are profitable, are able
to moderate overnight price changes, and may be motivated, in part, by inventory
adjustment concerns. I focus on interlisted stocks that simultaneously open
for trading under two different mechanisms and show how the comparative levels
of pre-trade market transparency of each exchange impacts RT profits and participation.
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42) „Stock Markets
in Transition Economies“
Stijn Claessens, Simeon Djankov, and
Daniela Klingebiel
Abstract: Stock markets are underdeveloped
in transition economies Given the transformation in ownership that needed to
take place from the state to the private sector many observers considered well-functioning
stock markets essential to the process of transition. Indeed, 20 of 26 transition
economies have established formal stock markets in the past 10 years. Yet many
of these markets are undeveloped or dormant. Even the most developed markets
in Central Europe are small market capitalization does not exceed $15 billion
in the Czech Republic, Hungary, or Poland. Among the members of the Commonwealth
of Independent States (CIS), with the exception of Russia, market capitalization
is less than $1 billion. As a share of GDP, market capitalization matches levels
in other emerging markets only in Estonia and Hungary. And there is little trading
activity in most transition economy stock markets, with value traded as a share
of market capitalization averaging less than 30 percent.
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43) „Technology, automation,
and productivity of stock exchanges: International evidence“
Iftekhar Hasan – Markku Malkamäki; Heiko Schmiedel
Abstract: The paper stresses on the importance
of understanding the operational choices, strategies, and performances of stock
exchanges as regular operating firms (Arnold et al (1999), and Pirrong (1999))
Using unbalanced panel data on 49 stock exchanges over the period 1989–1998,
the paper traces the productivity of stock exchanges over time and across different
types and groups of exchanges. We find significant variability in respect of
the productivity – revenue and cost efficiency – across these exchanges. On
average, North American exchanges are found to be most cost and revenue efficient.
However, our findings also indicate that European exchanges have improved the
most, in respect of cost efficiency, while exchanges in South America and Asia-Pacific
regions are found to be lagging as regards both cost and revenue estimations.
The evidence also indicates that investment in technology-related developments
effectively influenced cost and revenue efficiency. Moreover, organisational
structure and market competition are found to be significantly associated with
both cost and revenue efficiency for the exchanges studied, whereas market size
and quality are related only to revenue efficiency.
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44) „Ten Years After
. . . Transition and Economics“
GÉRARD ROLAND
Abstract: This paper attempts to portray
a synthesis of what has been learned in the past 10 years with regard to the
transition process. It contrasts the mainstream “Washington consensus” view
of transition with the “evolutionary institutionalist” perspective. It argues
that the latter gives a more adequate and complete picture both of the transition
processes and of economic systems and is of better help to prevent serious transition
failures.
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45) „A note on trading
mechanism and securities value: The analysis of rejects from continuous trade“
Beni Lauterbach
Abstract: We examine 97 stocks that moved
from continuous trade back to single daily auctions. The response to exit from
continuous trade is almost a mirror image of the entry response documented in
Amihud et al., 1997 (Amihud, Y., Mendelson, H., Lauterbach, B., 1997. Journal
of Financial Economics 45, 365±390). Upon exiting continuous trade, stock liquidity,
price accuracy, and value drop. An exception is, however, identi®ed. Ten stocks
that were omitted from continuous trade within three months of their addition
have negative excess returns upon entry into continuous trade and positive excess
returns upon exit. These immediate rejects had relatively low volumes before
entering continuous trade, which suggests that for thinly traded stocks simple
unassisted continuous trade may not be optimal.
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46) „The Automation
of Capital Markets“
Arnold Picot, Christine Bortenlaenger and
Heiner Roehrl
Abstract: The Capital Market. Before
focusing on the automation process of the capital market, an explanation will
be given as to why this market was chosen for research purposes. Principally,
other markets such as the market for transportation services (e.g. Anner, 1993;
Berlage and Buellinger, 1994) or waste (e.g. Meyer, Schober, and Siefert, 1994)
also would have been suitable. But the following attributes predetermine the
capital market as the appropriate research object...
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47) „The Changing Microstructure
of European Equity Markets“
Marco Pagano
April 1997, revised
version
Abstract: In the last decade, the increased
competition between European stock exchanges has reduced the cost of trading
and increased the variety of trading mechanisms. The London Stock Exchange,
which initiated the competition in 1986 by setting up the SEAQ-I market, attracted
considerable trading volume in Continental equities in the late 1980s. Later,
however, Continental exchanges recovered most of the trading volume from London
upon restructuring their auction systems so as to offer very low trading costs,
greater transparency and continuous trading via an automated order book. At
the same time, the spreads quoted by SEAQ-I dealers increased considerably.
Lately, potential competition by continuous auction systems is threatening even
the market for British equities, and prompting the London Stock Exchange to
replace its former SEAQ system with an automated order book. As in Continental
Bourses, this automated auction system is expected to run in parallel with a
dealership market for large trades. So trading systems appear to be converging
towards a dualistic structure all over Europe. The paper documents these developments,
and considers how the competition between European exchanges is likely to evolve
and which opportunities and dangers the future may hold for them.
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48) „The Components
of the Bid-Ask Spread: A General Approach“
Roger D. Huang; Hans
R. Stoll
Abstract: A simple time-series market
microstructure model is constructed within which existing models of spread components
are reconciled. We show that existing models fail to decompose the spread into
all its components. Two alternative extensions of the simple model are developed
to identify all the components of the spread and to estimate the spread at which
trades occur. The empirical results support the presence of a large order processing
component and smaller, albeit significant, adverse selection and inventory components.
The spread components differ significantly according to trade size and are also
sensitive to assumptions about the relation between orders and trades.
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49) „The Equivalence
of Screen Based Continuous-Auction and Dealer Markets"
Ian Tonks
Abstract: The conventional response given
to explain the difference between an auction and dealer markets is that auction
markets are order driven and dealer markets are quote driven. However this paper
argues that there is no fundamental difference between these two alternative
trading systems, in the sense that the same set of equilibrium prices will obtain
in each market. In dealer markets liquidity is supplied by licensed intermediaries
who provide competing price quotes, whereas the auction market allows the free
entry of any trader to supply liquidity by permitting the submission of limit
orders. In both cases investors face a competitive price schedule, which they
can then trade against, and competition between traders in the auction market
or between dealers in the dealer market should ensure that liquidity suppliers
make no excess profits.
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50) „The Future of
Stock Exchanges in Emerging Economies: Evolution and Prospects"
Stijn Claessens & Daniela Klingebiel & Sergio L. Schmukler
Abstract: We study the determinants of
stock market development and the growing migration of capital raising, listing,
and trading activity to international exchanges. Economies with better fundamentals
have larger and more liquid markets. As fundamentals improve, however, the degree
of migration to international exchanges also increases. This leads to gains
for corporations in the form of lower costs and more liquidly traded shares.
Fully-fledged local stock exchanges are thus becoming less necessary for many
economies...
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51) „THE IMPACT OF
AUTOMATION ON LIQUIDITY, VOLATILITY, STOCK RETURNS AND EFFICIENCY :EVIDENCE
FROM THE TUNISIAN STOCK MARKET"
Olfa BENOUDA SIOUD and Dorra
MEZZEZ HMAIED
Abstract: INTRODUCTION
The development
of the economies of developing countries was for a long time braked by the insufficiency
of financing. Indeed, their financial systems essentially based on the banking
sector, didn't permit any more to fill the need of firms that had to face more
and more menacing international competition with the liberalization policy adopted
by most of these countries.
In order to stimulate their financial markets
and to favour the creation of new sources of financing, some of these countries
decided to undertake reforms to improve their market microstructure, taking
into account international norms and experiences of major stock exchanges.
Several stock exchanges decided to automate their trading systems in order to
take advantage of existing technology (Black (1971). This wave of reforms concerned
also emerging markets such as markets of Israel in 1987 (Amihud, Mendelson &
Lauterbach (1997), Singapore in 1989 (Naidu & Rozeff (1994)) and Morocco in
1998 (Derrabi (1998)) which introduced change in their trading systems in order
to attract order flows and increase liquidity through improved market transparency
and enhanced quality of execution. In 1996, the Tunis stock market (Bourse des
Valeurs Mobilieres de Tunis) computerized its trading system and eliminated
the traditional trading floor on which brokers exchange securities.
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52) „Toward Deep and
Liquid Markets: Lessons from the Open and Close at the London Stock Exchange“
Andrew Ellul & Hyun Song Shin
Abstract: The London Stock Exchange operates
a dual system for trading securities. As well as the official SETS order book
that opens and closes through a call auction, there is a parallel “off-exchange”
dealership system that trades the same securities. We document evidence that
the call auction system must overcome a coordination problem among traders if
it is to minimize the risk of unfilled orders. This implies that (i) traders
are reluctant to use the SETS system for small and medium sized stocks and (ii)
this reluctance is particularly evident on low activity days. We develop a model
of “thick market externalities” to explain this phenomenon. Our results suggest
that the dealership system fulfils an important function that complements the
order book.
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53) „Tale of Two Trading
Venues: Electronically Delivered Orders vs. Floor Brokered Orders on the American
Stock Exchange“
Puneet Handa & Robert A. Schwartz
Abstract: At the American Stock Exchange
(Amex), electronically-routed orders (referred to as "system orders") from "upstairs"
traders interact on the Amex trading floor with each other and with orders "worked"
by brokers. In addition, we see that brokers receive orders from clients and
other traders who have chosen to involve a floor broker as an intermediary in
the trading process. The quality of the trading outcomes for system orders,
compared to brokered orders, differs considerably, and these results have important
implications for market structure design.
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54) „Who Benefits from
an Open Limit-Order Book?“
Shmuel Baruch
Abstract: The NYSE has opened the limit-order
book to off-exchange traders during trading hours. In this paper, we address
the welfare implications of the recent change in market structure. We model
a market similar to the single-price auction that the exchange uses to open
the trading day. We consider two different environments. In the first, only
the specialist can see the limit order book, while in the second the information
in the book is available to all traders. We then compare equilibria. We find
that traders who demand liquidity are better off when the book is open, while
traders who supply liquidity (limit-order traders and the specialist) are better
off when the book is closed. We also find that, on average, the opening price
is more informative in the open book environment. The empirical implications
with an open limit-order book are:
1) Opening prices are more informative;
2) Price impacts of market orders are smaller; and
3) The adverse-selection
component of price impacts of market orders are larger.
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